The Islamic Talks Will Fail--- Here's Why

Opinion | April 10, 2026

By Joe Perez

As US Vice President JD Vance touches down in Islamabad today for what Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called a "make-or-break moment," the world is watching with cautious hope. A two-week ceasefire is holding — barely. Iranian delegates have arrived at the Serena Hotel. Diplomats are talking.

Don't be fooled. The evidence on the ground points in one direction: these talks are headed for failure.

Two Sides, Two Completely Different Wars

The fundamental problem with the Islamabad talks is not a lack of goodwill from Pakistan or a shortage of diplomatic talent. The problem is that the United States and Iran are not negotiating from the same reality.

Iran's 10-point peace proposal calls for Iranian dominance and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, the full withdrawal of US combat forces from the Middle East, a halt to military operations against allied armed groups, full compensation for war damages, the lifting of all US and UN sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and the ratification of any final agreement by a binding UN Security Council resolution. (Al Jazeera)

The United States, meanwhile, is demanding Iran surrender its enriched uranium stockpile — a condition Iran has flatly rejected. Iran's nuclear chief called the demand for zero enrichment "wishful thinking," while Iran's 10-point plan explicitly asserts its "right to enrichment" — a demand VP Vance swiftly shut down. (CNBC)

These are not the positions of two parties searching for a middle ground. These are the opening salvos of two sides that fundamentally disagree on who won this war and what peace should look like.

The Lebanon Wildcard

Even if the US and Iran could bridge those enormous gaps, there is a third party actively working to blow up the talks: Israel.

While Israel endorsed the Pakistani-brokered ceasefire with Iran, Prime Minister Netanyahu said it would not extend to fighting with Hezbollah or Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon. (Al Jazeera) The first days of the ceasefire were the deadliest in Lebanon since September 2024, with at least 357 dead and over 1,200 injured in Israeli strikes. (CNN)

Iran has made its position clear. Iranian national security adviser Mahdi Mohammadi stated bluntly: "Without fully restraining America's rabid dog in Lebanon, there will be no ceasefire or negotiations, and the missiles are ready to launch." (Wikipedia)

Trump has asked Netanyahu to "low-key it" in Lebanon. Netanyahu's response was equally clear — Israel would continue striking Hezbollah wherever necessary. The US cannot deliver its own ally to the negotiating table. That alone could sink the talks before they begin.

The Negotiators Themselves Are a Problem

Trump has fired the vast majority of his Middle Eastern experts, while dozens of Iran's top officials have been killed in the conflict. One expert expects both sides to arrive with maximal demands, saying it is "going to be very public, very belligerent, and both sides are going to be making very large claims that make coming to a real, workable, long-term deal very hard." (Middle East Eye)

The US team includes Jared Kushner — Trump's son-in-law — who does not even hold an official administration role, yet has significant financial interests across Israel and the Gulf region. (Middle East Eye) Sitting across from Iran's experienced foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, the credibility gap is glaring.

Even Pakistan Knows

Perhaps the most telling sign of all is Pakistan's own stated goal for these talks. Islamabad is not aiming for a peace deal. Its modest, realistic goal is simply to get both sides to agree to keep talking. (Al Jazeera) When the host nation's measure of success is just keeping everyone in the room, that tells you everything about the odds of a breakthrough.

My Prediction

The Islamabad talks will not produce a lasting agreement. At best, both sides will agree to extend the ceasefire and schedule a second round of negotiations — buying time while the fundamental disagreements remain untouched. At worst, Israel's continued strikes on Lebanon will give Iran the justification it needs to walk away entirely, and the missiles will fly again.

Iran expert Trita Parsi put it plainly: "The potential talks in Islamabad could fail, but the terrain has shifted. Trump's failed use of force has blunted the credibility of American military threats, introducing a new dynamic into US-Iran diplomacy." (Al Jazeera)

That new dynamic may eventually lead somewhere. But not this weekend. Not in Islamabad. Not with this many conditions, this much distrust, and an Israeli prime minister who has made clear he answers to no ceasefire.

The world wants peace. The parties in Pakistan are not yet ready to make it.